Getir is a sign of what is to come in the M&A market in 2024

Many people, myself included, predicted a wave of startup takeovers in 2023 as companies rooted in good ideas, but built on less-than-ideal business models, run out of cash. That has largely not happened, but there are signs that it will happen in 2024.

Fund volume and deal count continue to slow, according to Q3 data from PitchBook, and macroeconomic conditions have economists and politicians predicting a recession in 2024. Investors are telling me the same that they spend less time supporting portfolio companies that are not performing well. and looking to help them find a soft landing.

When I first wrote about the upcoming startup acquisitions back in June 2022 — yes, my timeline is a little off — I initially thought the acquirers would be late-stage startups with more cash in the bank. I picture strong companies, with strong business models, like Stripe and Plaid, scooping up smaller competitors to justify their inflated valuations. But the startup acquisitions we’ve seen so far have mostly been by public players or private equity firms.

I think that will change next year, and I don’t think it’s a good buy for less or less. Companies may be thinking more about an exit for themselves next year, rather than a buyout. Companies will go to great lengths to plug holes in their business models. I believe that the depressed buy the depressed.

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